Sunday, June 18, 2006

Taliban getting bolder

I am starting to think that we may have dropped the ball in Afghanistan. I seriously hope I am wrong, but my gut tells me that the Taliban are sensing a weakness in the U.S. military structures, and they are trying to see if they can exploit it. It really is no secret that our military is stretched pretty thin at the moment, with our troops so heavily deployed in and around Iraq, that Afghanistan may pay the price.

With all the recent events, Iraq, Katrina, the border, etc.., we may have our military to spread out to quickly and effectively respond to an upsurge in violence in Afghanistan. This is were I think the Taliban our hoping to exploit the situation. They have large numbers of fresh, battle trained fighters from the Iraq war, that are most likely in my guess fading back to Afghanistan to further fight the western infidel.

Iraq is so jacked up that all our focus is there, so while our attention is diverted, the Taliban will take advantage, and increase attacks. They don't have to actually be all that effective, they just have to increase the level of overall hostility in the country. With increased attacks, and the U.S. military's lack of ability to respond with extra troops on the quick, the situation will not disintegrate completely, but it will start to look like it may. If in country, things begin to feel worse, and sentiment towards the U.S. gets worse, slowly the tempo rises, and more and more young people with nothing to do will find something to do.

As the slow, but building cycle of attacks increase, and the inevitable inability of the U.S. military to respond properly, things are going to get worse. If the appearance of Taliban success increases, we will have a real problem in that country. If they have moved from attacking with 100 men to now using up to 400 men, they have increased their ability to achieve their objectives by 4 times. While they are increasing their success rate, our success rate is sure to fall. If we don't actively have the ability to counter their moves with more men of our own, how can we keep Afghanistan stable?

The Taliban think if they step it up enough, we won't be able to respond, and they may be right. What happens if that is the case? What does the U.S. and the international community do if the Taliban are to actually start taking over meaningful areas of territory? How well is the American public going to stomach another "Iraq" type situation in Afghanistan? The reality of the situation is, when all is done and over with, the U.S. and the Bush legacy may leave a completely shattered Middle East. The rest of the world may see the U.S. go into a region with the military, one place with justification, one without, but both left off worse then they were before.

Or of course, my gut may just be being extremely cruel to me, and I am just off the deep end on this. It may be entirely possible that the Taliban are just trying to "take advantage of a closing window", and they know they are losing what little control they have left. I hope that is the case, but this is not the first time I have heard the enemy is in its last throws.

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